The situation: A cloud of uncertainty has hung over the US economy since the Trump administration’s April 9 pause of so-called reciprocal tariffs. That’s made it difficult for retailers and brands to plan for the short and medium term. The outlook is now poised to grow even murkier. President Donald Trump extended the pause period—originally set to expire on Wednesday—until August 1. At the same time, he announced new 25% tariffs on imports from South Korea and Japan, also taking effect August 1, along with steep additional levies on other countries. Our take: With companies planning to pass on about 70% of the cost of levies to consumers via higher prices, it’s no surprise that we expect tariffs to take a meaningful bite out of retail sales this year—whether we remain in the moderate scenario or shift into a heavier one. In such a dynamic environment, retailers and brands should rely on scenario modeling that accounts for a range of possible futures. They can hope for the best but plan for the worst to ensure they’re ready to adapt to whatever twists lie ahead.
The news: AI-powered search tools, including large-language models (LLMs) used by Perplexity and other AI companies, increasingly deliver unreliable data. Our take: Audit your AI stack. Don’t rely on outputs alone—verify the provenance of AI-generated data and prioritize tools trained on verified, high-integrity sources. Vet vendors based on transparency, update cycles, and data hygiene. If you’re using AI for decision-making, demand traceable accountability—because “good enough” answers can quickly become costly mistakes.
The news: AI-assisted content now dominates Google’s top search results, but pure AI rarely ranks No. 1, according to an Ahrefs analysis of 600,000 pages across 100,000 keywords. It found that most top-ranking content includes some AI input, but only 13.5% was purely human-written. Key takeaway: Google doesn’t care who wrote the content, only whether it’s of good quality. Marketers should use AI to move faster but rely on human oversight to ensure clarity, credibility, and connection. Optimizing content for authenticity, brand voice, and user engagement—as well as generative engine optimization (GEO)—could lead to higher rankings.
The news: TikTok is reportedly exploring a US-only version of the app amid ongoing discussions of a US ban and selloff, per The Information. The new app is said to align with the requirements of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. Our take: A US-specific app would allow TikTok to potentially regain advertiser confidence in a critical market—but the new app’s success depends on how a new algorithm would impact the user experience.
The news: US ad employment continued its downward trend in June, with jobs in advertising, public relations, and related fields decreasing by 700 jobs, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report. The decrease marks the seventh consecutive month of ad industry job losses, per Ad Age. Our take: Rather than a temporary slump, declining ad employment is marking a structural shift that risks prioritizing cost-cutting and short-term efficiency over human insight and brand-building expertise.
Over a third (34.5%) of US B2B enterprise marketers believe there will be greater pressure to prove every dollar’s ROI in real-time in the coming year, according to a March 2025 survey from EMARKETER and StackAdapt.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss the second biggest digital ad player’s (Meta) vision for the future of ads, if it will lead to money saved or more commercials, and why the 30-second AI-made TV ad for Kalshi matters more than most. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Senior Director of Briefings Jeremy Goldman, and Principal Analyst Yory Wurmser. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.
A new framework for gaming ads from the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) might finally help marketers take full advantage of the highly engaged gamer audience.
The news: Streaming has officially surpassed pay TV in the US, with 50.4% of households no longer subscribing to cable or satellite, per our forecast. But streaming’s ad experience still has work to do. Hub Research finds two-thirds of viewers prefer live TV ad breaks over those in on-demand streaming, and Gen Z remains the least likely to adopt ad-supported tiers. Our take: Streaming isn’t a free pass to interrupt. Gen Z demands relevance, brevity, and control—meaning streaming platforms must reengineer how, when, and where they serve ads. The format must evolve if AVOD is to survive the next wave of viewer expectations.
The opportunity: Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom are gaining ground while some of their luxury rivals stumble. Our take: Execution matters—especially in a luxury market where consumers are increasingly anxious about the economy. These shoppers have little tolerance for poor experiences, operational missteps, or inventory gaps. Retailers that deliver consistency, trust, and seamless service will be best positioned to retain loyalty and capture share.
The commerce media space is growing fast, and as it gets more crowded, it’s becoming harder to keep up with the retail media giants. But by teaming up, smaller players can more easily scale their networks to achieve the reach to stay competitive.
The news: Wegmans added Instacart’s Caper Carts—AI-powered smart carts—to a store in Syracuse, New York. Our take: Wegmans has staked its brand on exceptional customer service.
The news: Changes to Amex’s and Chase’s credit card welcome offers do away with guaranteed points for new cardholders, per CNET. Our take: Amex and Chase are trying to maximize their marketing appeal while also limiting their rewards costs.
The news: Credit card delinquencies have sunk to their lowest levels in two years, within striking distance of pre-pandemic levels, per data from VantageScore’s Credit Gauge. Our take: Fewer issuers are tightening their credit card lending standards, but those looking to gain sign ups face troubled waters—consumer demand for credit cards fell in April by the most since the early days of the pandemic, per the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Survey.
The news: Deutsche Bank plans to launch a digital asset custody service next year, which would allow clients to securely store cryptocurrencies and tokenized assets. It initially announced its custody plans in 2022. Our take: These two German banks’ announcements signal growing confidence among European financial institutions in embracing digital assets. We expect more of them to follow suit in the coming year.The trend could also pick up pace in the US amid a favorable environment: Several major US banks already offer crypto asset services, but recent developments like the withdrawal of previous cautionary guidance by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency could spur more major US banks to jump in.
The news: Gander Social is an upcoming Canadian social platform built on the decentralized AT Protocol, similar to Bluesky. Gander rejects algorithmic feeds, ad surveillance, and dark UX patterns, per Metricool. As an alternative to networks like X, Meta’s Threads, and Bluesky, it offers user-controlled content, privacy by design, and community-first tools—hosted entirely within Canada. It will be available as a closed beta in August. Our take: As algorithmic fatigue and platform distrust grow, demand is rising for community-driven, ad-light spaces. Marketers should watch Gander as a testbed for the next wave of privacy-first, hyper-local platforms.
The news: Faceless creators and VTubers are gaining momentum as brands look for cost-effective, scalable influencer marketing options. Networks like AffiliateNetwork are growing rapidly, with top earners bringing in $30K–$40K monthly using AI-powered tactics. Creators run multiple accounts, post hundreds of videos, and rely on formats like AI-generated texting stories to deliver results. Our take: This shift marks a new phase in creator marketing—one defined less by personality and more by production speed and performance. As AI tools improve and creator skepticism fades, brands will increasingly work with digital personas that deliver value at scale—regardless of whether there’s a human on camera.
The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That’s a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce—and place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.
The news: Stablecoin issuer Circle has applied for a US trust bank license, less than a month after its IPO launch. It had planned to make this move before the launch. Our take: We’ve recently covered multiple fintechs launching IPOs, and moving toward traditional banking—including acquiring licenses. Its decision which aligns with both of these trends signals how stablecoins become more mainstream in the banking world. Plus, Circle’s status as a national trust bank could enhance trust among customers who are still on the fence about investing.
The news: Credit unions—especially smaller ones—are rapidly advancing their digital capabilities. Small credit unions have drastically reduced their innovation lag rate in just the past year. Our take: The progress made by credit unions shows that they are serious about appealing to younger customers. With digital expectations rising and innovation showing no signs of slowing down, credit unions will need to maintain this momentum to stay relevant and meet the evolving needs of future members.